HIGH MOTOR GUY

Tweet

MY attempts to organize the bracket in alphabetical order came in vain. Instead, this year’s NCAA tournament preview devolved in to a March Manifesto.

Without further ado …

A is for Apologist: And I am one for bafflingly-maligned commentator Dick Vitale. Yes, his praise of Duke reaches obnoxious heights. And yes, the tone-deaf talking head has blown out a few Murphy-owned speakers over the years. But many of us are far too jaded by the external factors polluting the college sports landscape. Vitale isn’t. He’s an unabashed fan who recognizes the beauty of the game – isn’t that what makes March so special? — without letting the hypocrisy of the NCAA sully it.

B is for Back-up Plan: Based on his look — the seemingly unwashed Ultimate Warrior locks of hair contained by a thin rubber headband — and because of his game – the flailing finishes and unorthodox movements – one could come to the conclusion that Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk would need one. The “stat heads”, however, sing a different tune; advanced analytics shine on Olynyk, who has the highest efficiency rating in college basketball. If he can lead the Zags, entering the tournament as a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history, to Atlanta come the first weekend in April, he could be lottery-bound by June.

C is for Cashing in: Last year, then-Ohio coach John Groce parlayed the Bobcats’ unlikely March run into a high-dollar, high-major job. As is the case annually, at least one coach is likely to rise from relative obscurity into the top tax bracket. At this point, the job market for Big Six coaching positions isn’t exactly robust – Northwestern and USC are the top jobs of the moment – but when the carousel starts turning, that certainly is subject to change. A few candidates to bolt from the mid-major ranks on the strength of March performances include Akron’s Keith Dambrot, Valpo’s Bryce Drew and Boise State’s Leon Rice.

D is for Discouragement: It’s a side effect of sorts; the body language and box score lines of any guard that has had to go at either Ohio State’s Aaron Craft or Indiana’s Victor Oladipo belies it. Craft and Oladipo approach defense with differing strengths. (Oladipo as an uber-athlete who has mastered the come-from-behind block, and Craft with a Stockton-type of cunning and physicality that has driven a few guards over the edge.) The impact of their individual efforts has proven to be far-reaching — Ohio State and IU rank among the nation’s top-25 teams in defensive efficiency.

E is for Equalizer: If anything has proven to erode, or even erase, the gap between the traditional powers and the pedestrians, it’s the three-point shot. Teams that have proven to consistently hit the 3 are dangerous upon the commencement of the madness. This year’s long-range proficient  underdogs to keep an eye on include 13^th seeded South Dakota State (facing No. 4 Michigan) and 14^th seeded Harvard (facing No. 3 New Mexico), both of which connect on nearly 40 percent of their shots from behind the arc.

F is for Fastidious: Wasted possessions are an un-welcomed entity at tournament time; one that Michigan coach John Beilein will not have to worry about.  Led by Trey Burke, the nation’s best point guard, the Wolverines maximize their offensive output by avoiding turnovers – their TO percentage of 14% is the nation’s lowest. The value of that metric is proven within this year’s tournament field; the bracket includes seven of the 10 least turnover prone teams in the country. The tournament’s most careless teams? Both Valparaiso and Villanova turn the ball over on 22.3% of their possessions.

G is for Gunners: The guys who are not shy about shooting or deterred by the double team. The tournament’s most unabashed shooter is Iona’s Lamont “MoMo” Jones. This season Jones took 16.8 shots per contest and did so with impressive efficiency for a 6-foot guard, connecting 44 percent of the time. With his under-the-radar scoring ability, Jones’ Gaels might not be an easy out for second-seeded Ohio State.  The tournament’s other top guns: Ohio State’s DeShaun Thomas (15.9 FG attempts per game), South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters (15.2) and Creighton’s Doug McDermott (14.3).

H is for Hurry up and Wait: There’s no simple blueprint to building a bracket-busting upset; one theory is that by limiting an offense’s shots, its margin for error is, in turn, also limited. Total possessions per game is the best indicator of the speed (or pace) at which a team plays. Pitt, the No. 8 seed in the West region, is the tortoise of this year’s field at 62.4 total possessions per contest – only 14 of 347 Division I teams played slower. Surely Mark Few and top-seeded Gonzaga – Pitt’s potential second-round foe – have taken note of that fact. The tournament’s other sloths include Wisconsin (63.6 total possessions per game), Bucknell (63.8) and Florida (64.1).

I is for Inches: It takes 87 of them to measure from the ground to the top of Sim Bhullar’s head, making New Mexico State’s 7-foot-5-inch center the tournament’s biggest attraction. By my recollect – and lord knows I worked diligently in college to weaken it – he is the tallest college player since 7-foot-7 center Kenny George played for UNC-Ashville from 2006-2008. The red shirt freshman’s size comes with the predictable perks and pitfalls – he’s slow to get around but can be a defensive asset clogging the lane (posting a team-high 2.4 blocks per game). Wisconsin, traditionally the slowest basketball team since the advent of the shot clock, would be wise to run the 355-pounder out of the game in its first-round matchup with the Aggies.

J is for Jobbed: Louisville was by the selection committee. The tournament’s overall No. 1 seed will have to go through the toughest top-to-bottom region in the bracket. To reach Atlanta the Cards could have to get past a senior-laden Colorado State squad that leads the country in rebounding; a St. Louis team that has lost one game since Jan. 23; and either Duke or Michigan State, with their Hall of Fame coaches and tourney-tested rosters. No other No. 1 seed faces similar treachery on the road to the Final Four.

K is for KGB: John Malkovich’s iconic character in the 1998 classic “Rounders” speaks the following words in a dialect of unforgettable Eastern European indignation: “Pay that man his money.” The manger of your office’s pool will feel similarly inconsolable upon awarding an envelope full of $10 bills to the accountant’s 11-year-old stepson who ends up the big winner.

L is for Local Kids Making Good: And in this, the year before Simeon’s Jabari Parker takes over the basketball universe, there are a few of them. Louisville’s Wayne Blackshear (Morgan Park), Illinois’ Brandon Paul (Warren), Ohio State’s Sam Thompson (Whitney Young), Wisconsin’s Ben Brust (Mundelein), St. Louis’ Dwayne Evans (Neuqua Valley) and Notre Dame’s Jack Cooley (Glenbrook South) all will see meaningful March minutes. Of that group, Evans, a sophomore who garnered All-Atlantic 10 honors, may be the breakout player. One has to wonder how Bruce Weber and Oliver Purnell allowed the late, great Rick Majerus to steal Evans from the Chicago area.

M is for Misery Index:  It’s likely to reach new heights by weekend’s end in Columbia, Mo. – home of the Missouri Tigers. Mizzou holds the inglorious distinction of being the program with the most tournament wins (22) without reaching a Final Four. Most recently, the second-seeded Tigers lost to 15^th seeded Norfolk State in an unspeakable upset. Frank Haith’s talented but under-performing 2013 squad – a 9 seed in the Midwest Region – is a long shot to get Mizzou off the schneid this year.

N is for None and Done: When Kentucky won last year’s title led by a roster teeming with teenagers, the basketball apocalypse was, apparently, upon us. If championships were to be determined by players for whom the NCAA tournament was a pit stop en route to the NBA, the sanctity of the sport was jeopardized, some opined. Well, call the 2013 tournament a victory for the notion of student athleticism. Of this year’s top-eight seeds, none is led in either scoring or rebounding by a true freshman. Meanwhile, Kentucky, which restocked its roster with more short-term students, will be watching this year’s tournament couch-side rather than courtside.

O is for Obscure No More: Name recognition is unlikely to be a problem for Bucknell big man Mike Muscala by next week. The two-time Patriot League POY is one of only five players in this year’s tournament field to average a double-double (19 ppg, 11.2 rpg), and that production hasn’t exclusively accrued against Patriot League patsies;  Muscala averaged 17 and 12 in Bucknell’s three contests against teams from Power Six conferences, including a win over Purdue and a two-point loss at Mizzou, which went undefeated at home. Muscala and the Bison will test sixth-seeded Butler’s front court depth in one of Thursday’s most intriguing match-ups.

P is for Personal Day: Which every suddenly ambition-less American hoops enthusiast will utilize on Friday, March 22 – the tournament’s second full day of games. Those with even lower career aspirations may venture to take off both the Thursday and Friday of the Madness’ opening weekend off.

Q is for Questionable Fashion Sense: An apparent rapid epidemic among athletic department decision-makers was on display at conference tournaments this past week. This look is a fusion of acid-wash and Zubaz  – two trends children of the 1990′s have worked hard to scrub from family photo albums – and it is being donned by college basketball blue bloods like UCLA and Kansas. For the sake of James Naismith, this Adidas-sponsored, LSD-inspired mesh wear should be incinerated at once.

R is for Remember Me?: You might not. And why would you have any significant retention of the Chicago Bulls tenures of Bryce Drew and Fred Hoiberg. A pair of guards who started sporadically on the Tim Floyd-led 2000-2001 Bulls squad that won 15 games, both Hoiberg –known as “The Mayor” at Iowa State –  and Drew –  who authored  Valparaiso’s program-defining moment — have returned to courts upon which their legacies originated and added new chapters by coaching the programs to the tourney.

S is for Second Round: It begins when 32 teams remain in the tournament and takes place on Saturday and Sunday. The NCAA’s efforts to re-brand the Tuesday-Wednesday play-in games as the tournament’s first round aren’t sticking. They shouldn’t. The 64-team format is the one with which America has fallen in love.

T is for Twelve-Five: The most popular, predictable seeding upset in the bracket. A 12 seed has beaten a five seed in every tournament since 2007, and it’s happened 37 times since the tournament expanded to the current format. So who is this year’s most likely victim? There isn’t one. Too many of these match-ups are strength-on-strength, and that always favors the more talented team. The trendy pick is No. 12 Oregon upending fifth-seeded Oklahoma State in the Midwest. I have a tough time picking against a Cowboys team that is led by Marcus Smart, the potential top pick in June’s NBA draft.

U is for Uneven Keeled: Boom-or-bust players who get hot at the right time become celebs. Those who come up missing go home goats. The all-erratic team: Mizzou G Phil Pressey turns the ball over 2.9 times per a game in Tiger wins and 5.1 in their losses; Syracuse G Michael Carter-Williams who passes out 8.8 assists per game in Orange wins and 4.4 in losses; Minnesota G Andre Hollins connects on 44% of his shots in Gopher wins, 35% in losses; Iowa State  F Melvin Ejim is whistled for 2.9 fouls per game in Cyclone wins and 4 fouls per contest in their losses;  Duke F Mason Plumlee connects on 68% of his free throws in Blue Devil wins and 57% in their losses. (Note: This group excludes the man mentioned below who is in a class of his own in terms of in-game volatility.)

V is for Villain: The list of 2013 tournament participants is occupied by the usual heels – the increasingly irritable Jim Boeheim and the entire Kansas roster come immediately to mind – but no one has worked as diligently to earn a negative Q Score as Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson. His ire-inducing attitude has yielded the predictable, perhaps intended, results: Henderson is hated. In the eyes of opposing fan bases, he’s maniacal; I’d guess that in the eyes of most coaches he’s maddening. Henderson has shot the Rebels out of as many games as he’s won them, connecting on a not-that-great 40 percent of his field-goal attempts in their 26 wins and a putrid 33 percent in their eight losses.

W is for Wide Open: This year’s field is more so than any in recent memory (cliché alert). Counting a couple long shots in Michigan and St. Louis I believe a dozen teams — Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgetown, Miami, Duke and Florida —  have a chance to win a title.

X is for Xerox Machine: It’s an implement for duplicating bad brackets, not erasing foolish March missteps. A preview of fan thought processes come Saturday afternoon — How could I have taken Wisconsin to the Final Four when Bo Ryan’s tourney winning percentage is lower than Lou Ferrigno’s 1977 body-fat percentage?

Y is for Yearly Inquiries: As has become annual tradition, the deeper-pocketed programs are sure to at least send out feelers to the game’s hottest mid-major coaches. Any drama on this front, however, is likely to be short lived.  There’s no reason to believe VCU’s Shaka Smart or Butler’s Brad Stevens is going anywhere with their teams primed to join powers like Georgetown and Marquette in the reconfigured Big East.

Z is for Zero: As in none of these teams will reach the Final Four because they are the ones I’m picking. I’m going with Miami (out of the East), Florida (South), Louisville (Midwest) and Ohio State (West) in the Final Four, with Miami topping Louisville for the school’s first national title.

Follow Brendan Murphy @Chi_Murph

Listen to Brendan Murphy (along with Matt Weber & Colin Levesque) on this week’s “Tourney Preview Podcast”

Tweet